ALWAYS BE COVERING: WEEK FOUR
Ah, to live the exciting life of a degenerate gambler. The danger! The amazing highs. SO ALLURING. One week you’re having steak dinner, and the next week you’re jumping in front of traffic for the insurance money. I live on the edge.
MIA @ CIN (3.5) The great thing about this year’s NFL is that unlike previous years nearly every team is watchable for some reason. You had just fucking unwatchable teams last year like Miami and St. Louis and this year anyone can upset and play good football. What I’m trying to say is I still won’t fucking watch this game.
SPREAD: Under
TO WIN: Not much of anybody.
GB (7.0) @ IND The Colts are in a real bad shape without their head coach who has been diagnosed with Leukemia. Which sucks for two reasons – first, getting Leukemia is terrible for anyone and I wish him the best, and second, it’s impossible to make any sort of a joke under these circumstances. Historically teams with head coaching issues can’t prepare and get destroyed. Look at the Saints, they haven’t been the same since some ice cream vendor took over the team.
SPREAD: Over
TO WIN: GB
BAL (6.0) @ KC Baltimore’s defense is a far cry where it was last year and is really bad at getting to the passer and forcing turnovers. However, playing against Kansas City I wouldn’t use the phrase “forcing” turnovers. It’s more about patiently standing in line. The Chiefs are the NFL’s soup kitchen for turnovers. Speaking of begging for food, I’m hungry.
SPREAD: Over
TO WIN: BAL
CLE @ NYG (9.0) The Giants are really banged up right now and the Browns are actually doing a great job on defense getting to the passer. You know that I am a plugged-in football gambler by this last sentence. To sound a little more official, teams playing in a road game coming off a road lost cover 67 percent of the time. That’s what I heard from my gambling friend that works the glory hole in the truck stop diner. CREDIBLE.
SPREAD: Under
TO WIN: NYG
ATL (3.0) @ WAS This should be a high-scoring game! Both defenses have issues with injured starters and aren’t really able to stop too much, so there’s a lot of profit to be had since they can get scored on. It’s funny to me since I now know people who do find it profitable to get scored on.
SPREAD: Under
TO WIN: WAS (SHOCKER)
PHI @ PIT (3.5) The key to Philadelphia winning this game is to actually run the ball – the Steelers are 24th in the league in stopping the run this year. Unfortunately Andy Reid is about 31st in the league in remembering what the fuck a running play is. He does lead all head coaches in eating the most large pizzas during the third quarter.
SPREAD: Over
TO WIN: PIT
SEA @ CAR (3.0) The Cardinals are an easy unit to run on right now, so there’s a good chance that Seattle could outright win, let alone upset the over. I feel really good about Seattle’s chances to win this BULLSHIT BULLSHIT GOD FUCKING DAMN YOU WALKING HAIR TONIC DISPENSER PETE CARROLL I HOPE YOU GET RAPED TO DEATH IN THE FUCKING CAROLINA WOODS. Go Seahawks!
SPREAD: Under
TO WIN: Fuck it, Seattle
CHI (4.5) @ JAC YOOO GABBERT GABBERT GABBERT.
SPREAD: Over
TO WIN: CHI
TEN @ MIN (5.5) Neither of these teams deserve 5.5 of anything.
SPREAD: Under
TO WIN: I honestly don't care
DEN @ NE (6.5) Peyton Manning is obviously far from finished, and the New England secondary is extremely forgiving. Everyone keeps betting on the Patriots like they are in Super Bowl form but this is a different team. Whoever wins this, it will be close and high-scoring.
SPREAD: Under
TO WIN: FETUSHEAD
BUF @ SF (9.5) It turns out that having a stadium in a frigid arctic outpost makes it hard to attract quality free agents! Who knew?
In all seriousness I hesitate to take overs this high constantly but there isn’t much of a logical reason why this doesn’t happen. I doubt I’ll put much on it though.
SPREAD: Over
TO WIN: SF
SD @ NO (3.5) San Diego should get a ground game going this week as New Orleans can be scored on with the run. And the pass. And the option. And against quarterbacks. And against wide receivers, field goal kickers and special teams. And their drunken fanbase. But New Orleans can also put up a ton of points as we saw last week. With this offense they’re bound to win sooner or later, which is what I’ll be telling myself when someone is pulling out my fingernails because I missed a payment.
SPREAD: Under
TO WIN: NO
HOU (8.0) @ NYJ If you look at statistics you can see that the Texans are 1-3 on MNF, home underdogs coming off a loss as a home underdog are 59-31 against the spread since 2002, and teams that were shut out at home the previous week are 21-10 against the spread since 2001. That’s supposed to make me feel better taking the under. It would help a lot more if the JETS DIDN’T FUCKING SUCK. I’m not putting much on this, but that is a large spread.
SPREAD: Under
TO WIN: Seriously, HOU. I can only go so far with this.
Enjoy the games everyone!